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發表于 2011/3/18 電池壽命預測，是當前每家打算做PHEV和EV的公司（車或者是電池）都要做的事情，許許多多研究機構和企業正在這方面投入巨大的精力和資源。市面上也有一些仿真軟件工具，可以告訴你電池大概能用多少時間，前提是你要相信這個模型。 《Battery Life Estimator Manual Linear Modeling and Simulation》 電池壽命模型方面，NREL有著較多的研究，我在這里把它的一些結論進行一些整理，希望對大家有用。 A Battery Life Prediction Method for Hybrid Power Applications Impact of the 3Cs of Batteries on PHEV Value Proposition Cost, Calendar Life, and Cycle Life PHEV Battery Trade-Off Study and Standby Thermal Control 對于目前電池而言，兩個大的失效風險是內阻上升和容量下降，這在我的參加博客大賽 （有空幫忙投一下吧）的文章已經引用過了。 
對于引起這兩個退化的原因，可以見下圖：
最為明顯的就是放電深度（DOD），國內的某些廠家甚至玩到70%左右，這個實在讓人覺得危險啊。特別是在容量退化不均勻以后，可能造成的問題將非常大。
可以看出，衰減的過程與存放時間（從出廠至回收的時間），溫度（環境溫度和工作溫度），DOD窗口（這個參數與充放電功率有直接的關系），電壓，回收標準（容量衰減）。 目前人們做的事情，就是通過各種各樣的實驗進行測量，并且通過數據處理后回歸得到模型（關于電池模型的事情，已在文章中探討）。
對于測試方面，很多人用數據進行了佐證，主要是溫度方面的數據（電池實驗實在太耗時間與金錢了，通過確定溫度的影響，最后用加溫度的辦法提高應力，可以節約大量的時間與金錢）。 我將摘錄《Cycle-life model for graphite-LiFePO4 cells》這篇文章的部分結論，這篇文章非常有趣，建議大家可以去看一下。 最后，有個兄弟收集了不少的電池模型上的論文，大家有想法的可以去看看。 1、A Generic Battery Model for the Dynamic Simulation of Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2、Hybrid Electric Vehicle Modeling and Analysis in Generic Modeling Environment 3、Electrical battery model for use in dynamic electric vehicle simulations 4、An Enhanced Dynamic Battery Model of Lead-Acid Batteries Using Manufacturers' Data 5、Modeling of Lithium-Ion Battery for Energy Storage System Simulation 6、Accurate electrical battery model capable of predicting runtime and I-V performance 7、Battery-charging model to study transient dynamics of battery at high frequency 8、A Dynamic Battery Model for Co-design in Cyber-Physical Systems 9、Dynamic Battery Modeling of Lead-Acid Batteries using Manufacturers' Data 10、Performance analysis of lead acid battery model for hybrid power system 11、New Battery Model and State-of-Health Determination Through Subspace Parameter Estimation and State-Observer Techniques 12、Modeling and Real Time Estimation of Lumped Equivalent Circuit Model of a Lithium Ion Battery 13、Battery Model Parameters Estimation with the Sigma Point Kalman Filter 14、Comparison of reduced order lithium-ion battery models for control applications 15、Electrical component model for a nickel-cadmium electric vehicle traction battery 16、A new battery model for use with battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles power systems 17、Lithium-ion battery state of charge estimation with a Kalman Filter based on a electrochemical model 18、Dynamic lithium-ion battery model for system simulation 19、Development of improved Li-ion battery model incorporating thermal and rate factor effects 20、Parameter identification of the lead-acid battery model 21、A dynamic lithium-ion battery model considering the effects of temperature and capacity fading 22、A discrete-time battery model for high-level power estimation 23、Generic Battery Model based on a Parametric Implementation 24、Determination of lead-acid battery capacity via mathematical modeling techniques 25、Improved wind farm’s power availability by battery energy storage systems: modeling and control 26、Battery model for overcurrent protection simulation of DC distribution systems 27、Improving battery design with electro-thermal modeling 28、The validation of a thermal battery model using electrically-inert and active batteries 29、Modelling of high power automotive batteries by the use of an automated test system 30、A battery model for monitoring of and corrective action on lead-acid EV batteries 31、Battery Model using Advice Computer Simulation of PIN Diodes and RLC Circuit Topology 32、Modelling and simulation of a distributed battery management system 33、Modeling battery efficiency with parallel branches 34、Dynamic model for characteristics of Li-ion battery on electric vehicle 35、Battery Management System Based on Battery Nonlinear Dynamics Modeling 36、Two electrical models of the lead-acid battery used in a dynamic voltage restorer 37、A mathematical model for lead-acid batteries 38、Mathematical modeling and simulation of lead acid battery 39、An aging model of Ni-MH batteries for hybrid electric vehicles 40、 Fuzzy Clustering Based Multi-model Support Vector Regression State of Charge Estimator for Lithium-ion Battery of Electric Vehicle 41、Battery pack modeling for the analysis of battery management system of a hybrid electric vehicle 42、Simulation model for discharging a lead-acid battery energy storage system for load leveling 43、Simulation model for discharging a lead-acid battery energy storage system for load leveling 1 44、Advanced Electro-Thermal Modeling of Lithium-Ion Battery System for Hybrid Electric Vehicle Applications 45、ADVISOR-based model of a battery and an ultra-capacitor energy source for hybrid electric vehicles 46、New Method for Estimation Modeling of SOC of Battery 47、From Li-ion single cell model to battery pack simulation 48、An algorithm for battery modeling and life time maximization of small size electric systems 49、Economic models for battery energy storage: improvements for existing methods 50、High-performance battery-pack power estimation using a dynamic cell model |
