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Tourists Trap the Real China Story從國(guó)慶旅游數(shù)據(jù)看中國(guó)真正的消費(fèi)狀況 Scenic spots around China are reportedly mobbed with visitors during a long national holiday this week, which has many ordinary Chinese frustrated. But this is actually an encouraging sign for the country's economy. 據(jù)報(bào)道，在本周的“十一”長(zhǎng)假期間，中國(guó)各地的旅游景點(diǎn)都人滿為患，令很多普通百姓感到煩惱。但這對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)來說實(shí)際上卻是一個(gè)鼓舞人心的跡象。 The total number of people arriving at major tourist sites in China over the first two days of the 'National Day' holiday is up 18.8% from last year. That represents a slight slowdown from 21% growth during the holiday week last year. But it compares favorably with an 8.8% rise in 2011 and just 6.5% in 2010, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting. 今年“十一”長(zhǎng)假的前兩天，中國(guó)主要旅游景點(diǎn)游客數(shù)量較上年同期增長(zhǎng)18.8%，略低于去年“十一”長(zhǎng)假期間21%的增幅。但據(jù)美銀美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺說，今年的增幅高于2011年的8.8%和2010年的6.5%。 Other data tell a similar story. On Oct. 1, the first day of the holiday, Chinese railroads carried 10.3 million passengers. That's up 13.2% from a year earlier, according to government figures. 其他數(shù)據(jù)也顯示了類似的狀況。10月1日，也就是“十一”長(zhǎng)假的第一天，中國(guó)鐵路客運(yùn)量達(dá)1,030萬人次。據(jù)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示，這較上年同期增長(zhǎng)了13.2%。 Unfortunately, like those scenic spots, investments on the Chinese travel theme have become crowded. Shares in travel-booking site Ctrip.com International, for instance, have more than doubled this year and now trade at more than 63 times this year's expected earnings, according to FactSet. 遺憾的是，和旅游景點(diǎn)一樣，對(duì)中國(guó)旅游類股的投資也人滿為患。舉例來講，據(jù)FactSet說，旅行預(yù)訂網(wǎng)站攜程旅行網(wǎng)(Ctrip.com International)今年以來股價(jià)上漲了一倍以上，目前（根據(jù)今年的預(yù)期每股收益計(jì)算的）市盈率超過63倍。 But investors should still cheer the strong tourist data, because it signals that Chinese consumers are very much alive and kicking. 但投資者仍應(yīng)該對(duì)強(qiáng)勁的旅游數(shù)據(jù)感到高興，因?yàn)樗@示出中國(guó)消費(fèi)者非常活躍。 As a proxy for consumer activity, the tourist figures may be superior to official retail sales figures. The National Bureau of Statistics tabulate the latter and these government statisticians exclude all kinds of consumer services, from travel to haircuts, while including some government purchases. Retail sales in the first eight months of 2013 increased 12.8% year on year. 作為衡量消費(fèi)活動(dòng)的一個(gè)指標(biāo)，旅游數(shù)據(jù)可能優(yōu)于官方發(fā)布的零售額數(shù)據(jù)。零售額數(shù)據(jù)由中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布，政府統(tǒng)計(jì)人員剔除了各種消費(fèi)服務(wù)（從旅游到理發(fā)）的數(shù)據(jù)，而將一些政府采購(gòu)包括在內(nèi)。2013年前八個(gè)月的零售額較上年同期增長(zhǎng)了12.8%。 What's more, because many purchases in China are made in cash and off the books, many economists believe that consumption is severely under-counted in official estimates. In a recent report, Standard Chartered cited work by professors at two universities in Shanghai, who estimated that in 2009 household consumption was close to 50% of the economy, compared to the NBS estimate of just 35.3%. 此外，由于中國(guó)很多采購(gòu)是用現(xiàn)金付款，不計(jì)入表內(nèi)，很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為消費(fèi)在官方估計(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)中被嚴(yán)重低估。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)最近在一份報(bào)告中引用了上海兩所大學(xué)的教授的研究，這些教授估計(jì)，2009年中國(guó)家庭消費(fèi)接近經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的50%。相比之下，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局給出的估計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)只有35.3%。 Not all economists would put the true consumption figure quite so high, though most agree the official figures are significantly understated. 并非所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都認(rèn)為真正的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)有這么高，不過大部分人都認(rèn)為官方數(shù)據(jù)存在嚴(yán)重低估。 For years, critics have lamented China's slow transition to a consumer-led economic model. This week's strong tourist data is just the latest indication that China is further along on the path to rebalancing than many give it credit for. 多年來，批評(píng)人士一直在哀嘆中國(guó)向消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的轉(zhuǎn)變步伐緩慢。本周發(fā)布的強(qiáng)勁旅游數(shù)據(jù)只不過再一次顯示，中國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡的道路上走得比許多人認(rèn)為的要遠(yuǎn)。
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