這個問世剛四年的虛擬貨幣一度被視為淺薄的時髦小玩意兒，只有不法分子和販毒人員才用。但最近幾周，它卻獲得了來自各方的全新信任，而它在中國的表現尤其搶眼。不過，它本質上還是一個全球范圍內的貨幣試驗，它的未來依然存在不確定性。
比特幣終于迎來了走向成熟的盛大儀式。這個年方四歲的虛擬貨幣一度被視為淺薄的時髦小玩意兒，只有不法分子和販毒人員才用。但最近幾周，它卻獲得了來自各方的全新信任。美國和中國的投資者越來越有把握，這種替代性貨幣將來給普通消費者帶來好處。
美國國會首次就這種貨幣工具召開聽證會，高層執法機構和官員闡明了虛擬貨幣的好處之后，本周一，比特幣的價值躥上新高，達到700美元（隨后又在一夜之間漲到了900美元）。
首席檢察官助理麥齊利•拉曼表示，虛擬貨幣是合法的，而且“有潛力推動更多有效的全球貿易”。盡管沒有獲得央行的支持，但美聯儲主席本•伯南克也表達了類似看法。他在一封寫給參議員的信中表示，虛擬貨幣“長遠來看可能頗有前景，尤其是如果這種創新有助于建立更迅捷、更安全和更有效的支付系統”。
就在同一天，還爆出一條新聞，全球比特幣交易量最大的企業——BTC中國公司（BTC China）獲得了來自機構投資者光速安振中國創業投資（Lightspeed China Partners）和光速創業投資（Lightspeed Venture Partners）500萬美元的首輪融資。
這些動態表明，事情正在發生變化。就在上個月，聯邦當局端掉了一個名叫“絲綢之路”的網上販毒團伙，他們所有的交易都用比特幣來完成。這個行動引發了比特幣大規模拋售。這個網站被取締之后，比特幣的價格暴跌了20%。當時這種情況可能還令人難以置信，但這次打擊對這種貨幣來說可能是大好事，因為它有助于消除比特幣的陰暗面，使之更接近主流金融體系。
自從絲綢之路被端掉之后，比特幣就開始迎來大幅上漲，而它是否在美國興起其實還無關緊要。近幾周來，是中國大幅推高了比特幣的價格。據專門提供比特幣數據的Bitcoin Charts稱，現在約三分之一的比特幣交易都是通過BTC China交易平臺進行的，而這個平臺只對中國用戶開放。這家公司最近取代了位于東京的Mt. Gox公司，成為全球交易量最大的比特幣交易所，公司高管表示正計劃利用最新一輪融資“實現快速增長、拓展業務。”
為什么比特幣對中國情有獨鐘？盡管中國政府一向以強勢干預經濟而著稱，但讓人有點吃驚的是，這次它并沒有介入比特幣市場。比特幣市場一直波動劇烈，但它今年的價格已經大漲了30多倍。
| |
| Bitcoin has reached a rite of passage. The four-year-old virtual currency was once dismissed as something of a fad that only gangsters and drug dealers used, but in recent weeks, it has found new sources of credibility. Increasingly, investors from the U.S. to China are betting that the alternative currency could some day benefit regular consumers.
On Monday, bitcoin soared to a new high of $700 (it rose to $900 overnight), after senior law enforcement and regulatory officials highlighted the benefits of virtual currencies at the first ever congressional hearing on such monetary instruments.
Mythili Raman, acting assistant attorney general, said virtual currencies are legit and "have the potential to promote more efficient global commerce." And even though they aren't backed by a central bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke echoed similar sentiments, writing in a letter to senators that virtual currencies "may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system."
The same day, news broke that BTC China, the world's largest bitcoin exchange by trading volume, secured $5 million in investments from institutional investors Lightspeed China Partners and Lightspeed Venture Partners.
The developments signal a shift. Just last month, federal authorities busted an online drug ring called Silk Road, which used bitcoin for all transactions. The bust prompted a major sell off; bitcoin declined by 20% after the website was taken down. It might have been hard to believe then, but the crackdown was probably the best thing that happened for the currency. It helped clean up bitcoin's shady side, bringing it closer to the mainstream financial system.
Since the Silk Road crackdown, bitcoin has made huge gains, and whether it flourishes in the U.S. isn't really the issue. In recent weeks, China has overwhelmingly driven up the price of bitcoin. About a third of the currency's transactions now flow through the BTC China exchange, which is open only to Chinese users, according to Bitcoin Charts, which provides bitcoin data. BTC recently unseated Tokyo-based Mt. Gox as the world's largest exchange by trading volume, and executives say it plans to use its latest round of funding to "aggressively grow and expand the business."
Why the bitcoin love in China? It's surprising Beijing hasn't intervened, as the Chinese government generally keeps a heavy hand over its economy. Bitcoin is volatile, but its price has gone up more than 30-fold this year.
|
上周五在新加坡舉行的一個比特幣會議上，BTC China副總裁楊林科向法新社（Agence France-Presse）表示，這種貨幣之所以在中國如此火爆，是因為中國人喜歡存錢，他們把比特幣看成是存錢和投資的一種工具。在他說這番話之前幾周，常被稱為中國谷歌（Google）的百度公司（Baidu）開始對由其下屬企業加速樂（Jiasule）提供的一些服務接受比特幣。
但是大家在為比特幣的未來歡欣鼓舞之前，必須指出的是 ，對比特幣的大筆投資仍然是對其潛力和日益復雜的交易技術下注，它的實際用途倒在其次。專家們表示，比特幣在打入主流被普通消費者接受前，還需要克服很多障礙。像WordPress和Reddit這類網站已經開始接受比特幣支付，但據專門研究數字化營銷的哥倫比亞大學（Columbia University）教授大衛•羅杰稱，這很大程度上是全球范圍內開展的一個大型貨幣試驗。
還有一些必須考慮的風險和物流問題：由于比特幣的供應多數是固定的，導致它很有可能會大規模通縮，由此就會引發囤積。換言之，隨著比特幣所能購買的東西數量不斷增加，每個貨幣的價值也在增加。所以，由于每個比特幣今后都能買更多東西，那消費者為什么現在要花掉它呢。這是比特幣行業必須設法解決的一個大問題。
另外要讓比特幣真正流行起來，還需要讓普通消費者放心，覺得自己的錢是安全的。消費者的比特幣錢包往往是存在手機或電腦里，這些設備都可能被黑客攻破。支持比特幣的人總是宣稱，用比特幣支付的手續費要比信用卡支付的手續費低，但普通消費者是否愿意犧牲財產的安全性來省這點交易費還要拭目以待。
不過聯邦官員們正在制定虛擬貨幣的管理規定。比特幣未來到底會如何生存？它今后多年中如何使用？這些問題至今都還懸而未決。只不過這種貨幣的財運現在是前所未有的一片光明。（財富中文網）
譯者：清遠
| |
| At a bticoin conference in Singapore last Friday, BTC China's vice president Linke Yang told Agence France-Presse that the currency has become big in China because its citizens are big savers and see bitcoin as a vehicle to park and invest their money. His remarks come a few weeks after Baidu (BIDU), often referred to as the Google of China, began accepting bitcoin for some services offered by its subsidiary, Jiasule.
But before anyone gets too excited, it's worth saying that any bet on bitcoin is still more of a wager on its potential and the growing sophistication of its trading technologies than its practical use. Bitcoin will have to overcome big hurdles, experts say, before it goes mainstream with average consumers. Websites like WordPress and Reddit have accepted bitcoin as payment, but it is largely one big monetary experiment being tested across the world, says David Rogers, a Columbia University professor who specializes in digital marketing.
A few risks and logistical challenges to consider: Because the supply of bitcoin is mostly fixed, it has a massive deflationary bias that encourages hoarding. In other words, as the amount of things that bitcoin can buy increases, the value of each coin increases as well. So since each coin should be able to buy more goods in the future than it can today, it's hard to see why consumers would spend bitcoin now when they can use it to buy much more at a later date. That's a big kink the bitcoin industry will need to work out.
And for bitcoin to take off, it needs to assure average consumers that their money is safe. Customers' biction wallets are typically stored in their phones or computers, which can be hacked. Proponents often claim that it costs less to process a bitcoin payment than a typical credit card payment, but it remains to be seen if average consumers are willing to give up the security of their money to save on transaction costs.
Federal regulators are developing rules for the virtual currency, however. How bitcoin will exist in the future, if at all, and what it will be used for years from now is unclear. But the currency's fortunes are looking brighter than ever.
|
|
