著名的悲觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家努里爾•魯比尼說(shuō)，是時(shí)候給他換一個(gè)綽號(hào)了。
這位紐約大學(xué)（the New York University）的教授曾預(yù)言房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂和金融危機(jī)，近期他表達(dá)了積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景預(yù)期。周三上午，魯比尼在拉斯維加斯的年度SALT對(duì)沖基金研討會(huì)上發(fā)表演講時(shí)表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)消退。而且，美國(guó)投資者似乎不再擔(dān)心海外的政治問(wèn)題。
魯比尼說(shuō)：“現(xiàn)在我坐在他旁邊，你們應(yīng)該叫我繁榮博士”，他指的是會(huì)上另一位經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)家彼得•希夫。
魯比尼表示，歐盟和歐元的表現(xiàn)都比去年同期更為強(qiáng)勁。他還表示，“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”似乎在日本發(fā)揮了作用，日本的衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)消退。不過(guò)他認(rèn)為，美國(guó)取得的進(jìn)展最大，赤字規(guī)模已經(jīng)縮小，華盛頓似乎也已進(jìn)入“休戰(zhàn)期”。
會(huì)議討論的主題轉(zhuǎn)向通縮，會(huì)議參與者包括美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）前理事勞倫斯•邁耶、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家彼得•希夫、希臘前總理喬治•帕潘德里歐以及政治家出身的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）雇員哈羅德•福特。希夫表示，通貨緊縮對(duì)美國(guó)而言可能是好事，而魯比尼卻說(shuō)，那是無(wú)稽之談。他表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在終結(jié)通縮或經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的威脅方面做得很好。
魯比尼稱：“美國(guó)財(cái)政危機(jī)的威脅已經(jīng)結(jié)束，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的非常規(guī)貨幣政策已經(jīng)奏效。”
2013年，美國(guó)股市上漲了30％。2014年初，魯比尼曾表示，投資者似乎操之過(guò)急，而且他擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)會(huì)令人失望。而現(xiàn)在魯比尼似乎沒(méi)那么擔(dān)心了，也許是因?yàn)榻衲旯墒谢緫B(tài)勢(shì)平穩(wěn)。
相反，魯比尼認(rèn)為未來(lái)幾年股票和其他投資有可能上漲。他認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)維持低利率，從而推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)上漲。在此之后，可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，不過(guò)那也是幾年之后的事情了。魯比尼說(shuō)：“我們現(xiàn)在還沒(méi)有進(jìn)入泡沫時(shí)期”。
2014年，魯比尼首要關(guān)注的問(wèn)題是什么呢？中國(guó)。魯比尼關(guān)注中國(guó)的銀行系統(tǒng)已有一段時(shí)間。他認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的銀行貸款與金融危機(jī)之前美國(guó)的情況非常相似。他說(shuō)，中國(guó)出現(xiàn)類似問(wèn)題的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在上升，但他認(rèn)為這個(gè)問(wèn)題不會(huì)像美國(guó)當(dāng)時(shí)那么嚴(yán)重。他說(shuō)：“中國(guó)將出現(xiàn)顛簸式著陸，而市場(chǎng)的定價(jià)似乎并沒(méi)有包含這個(gè)因素。”
與許多其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一樣，魯比尼也擔(dān)心美國(guó)收入不平等產(chǎn)生的長(zhǎng)期影響。他表示，資金就在可能花錢的人和可能坐擁資金的人之間轉(zhuǎn)移。這會(huì)減緩資金在經(jīng)濟(jì)中的流動(dòng)并阻礙投資。舉個(gè)例子，魯比尼說(shuō)如果消費(fèi)者沒(méi)錢去消費(fèi)，企業(yè)就不太愿意把儲(chǔ)備的巨額資金用于擴(kuò)張業(yè)務(wù)。
也許“繁榮博士”這個(gè)稱號(hào)不會(huì)叫太久。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者： Lina
| | | Nouriel Roubini, the famously negative economist, says it may be time to change his nickname.
The New York University professor, who predicted the housing bust and financial crisis, has been upping his economic outlook recently. Speaking at the annual SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning, Roubini said that many of the risks in the global economy have receded. Also helping, U.S. investors no longer seem worried about political trouble overseas.
"Next to him you should call me Dr. Boom," said Roubini, referring to Peter Schiff, another economic forecaster on the panel.
Roubini said the European Union and the Euro were looking a lot stronger than a year ago. He also said "Abenomics" appears to be working in Japan, and the risk of a recession has receded there. But the biggest improvement, Roubini thought, is taking place in the U.S. The deficit has shrunk and Washington appears to have called a truce.
The discussion -- which also included former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, Schiff, the former prime minister of Greece George Papandreou, and politician-turned-Morgan Stanley-employee Harold Ford -- turned to deflation. Schiff said deflation could be good for the U.S. Roubini called that notion nonsense. He said the Fed had done a good job ending the threat of deflation or a slowdown.
"The threat of a fiscal crisis in the United States is done," said Roubini. "The Fed's unconventional monetary policy has worked."
Earlier in 2014, after the U.S. stock market rose 30% in 2013, Roubini said that investors appeared to have gotten ahead of themselves, and was worried the economy would disappoint. Roubini appears to be less concerned about that now, perhaps because the stock market has been mostly flat this year.
Instead, Roubini suggested that stocks and other investments are likely to rise for the next few years. He thinks the market will be pushed up by the Fed, which will keep interest rates low for a few more years. After that, there could be problems, but that is a few years down the road. "We're not in a bubble yet," said Roubini.
Roubini primary concern for 2014? China. Roubini has been watching the Chinese banks for a while, and he sees many similarities in the lending there to what was happening in the U.S. before the financial crisis. He said the risk of something similar happening in China is rising, but he thinks the problem will not be quite as bad as what we saw in the U.S. "It will be a bumpy landing," he said. "And the market doesn't seem to be pricing that in."
Roubini, like many other economists, is also worried about the long-term effects of income inequality in the United States. He said money is shifting between people who are likely to spend it to those who may sit on those funds. That's slowing the movement of money in the economy and holding back investment. For example, Roubini said if consumers don't have money to spend, companies will be less willing to spend the trillions they have put away on expanding their businesses.
Perhaps he won't be Dr. Boom for long.
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